Event Date/Time: Jul 24, 2006 End Date/Time: Jul 28, 2006
Registration Date: Mar 31, 2006
Early Registration Date: Mar 31, 2006
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Description

Imprecise probability is a generic term for the many mathematical or statistical models which measure chance or uncertainty without sharp numerical probabilities. These models include belief functions, Choquet capacities, comparative probability orderings, convex sets of probability measures, fuzzy measures, interval-valued probabilities, possibility measures, plausibility measures, and upper and lower expectations or previsions. Imprecise probability models are needed in inference problems where the relevant information is scarce, vague or conflicting and in decision problems where preferences may also be incomplete.

The school is intended as a wide and deep introduction to imprecise probability topics, both theoretical and applied. Specifically, the school will focus on coherent lower previsions and their behavioural interpretation, non-additive measures and applications to decision theory, the imprecise Dirichlet model, predictive inference with imprecise probabilities, and knowledge discovery from data sets under weak assumptions. It will be an aim of the school to connect the mentioned topics into an overall picture within the framework of imprecise probabilities.

The Second SIPTA School on Imprecise Probabilities will take place in the Headquarters of the Rey Juan Carlos University Foundation, in Madrid (Spain), on July 24-28, 2006. It is an event organized by the International Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA) and by the Group of Statistics and Decision Sciences (GECD) from Rey Juan Carlos University.

You can find all the relevant information on http://bayes.escet.urjc.es/~emiranda/sipta

Schedule and topics

Each of the five days of the summer school will be devoted to a different topic, and the time will be divided equally between theory and exercises/applications. The topics covered will be:

• The Imprecise Dirichlet Model (Jean-Marc Bernard, Université Paris V).
• Predictive inference with imprecise probabilities (Gert de Cooman, Ghent University).
• Non-additive measures and applications on decision theory (Jean-Yves Jaffray, Université Paris VI).
• Coherent lower previsions and their behavioural interpretation (Enrique Miranda, Rey Juan Carlos University).
• Knowledge discovery from data sets under weak assumptions: the case of prior ignorance and incomplete data (Marco Zaffalon, IDSIA).



Registration

If you would like to attend the school on Imprecise Probabilities, please fill in the pre-registration form on http://bayes.escet.urjc.es/~emiranda/sipta no later than March 31, 2006, enclosing a short CV (no longer than 2 pages). Notification on acceptance will be made on April 15, 2006.

Venue

Plaza de Manuel Becerra, 14
Madrid
Spain
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Additional Information

Please contact Enrique Miranda, at enrique.miranda@urjc.es

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